Crunch Time

Welcome to the in-between world

It’s important to recognize where we are.  This is brand new stretch of water.  It’s Crunch Time, a disorienting moment of change rife with such extraordinary potentiality that people are faced with the transformative decision on how to get through it. Professor Walter Brueggemann writes that there are three major stages of orientation that reflect even the seasons of our own lives.

The first stage is being “securely oriented”. It is here that we feel settled and secure. Our lives make sense and the decisions we make are anchored in good judgement. This could be a time when your job seems secure and your family life is well ordered. Financially we are doing okay. Yet we know that this security never hangs around for long. Which leads us to the second stage.

The second stage is being “painfully disoriented”. These are times when we feel blind sided, hurt, and reeling from stress and the perceived enormity of change. Here you may have lost a job, a child, a divorce or some other chaotic and unexpected event. Yet if we persist in this movement, hang on with resilience, the third stage inevitable reveals itself.

This third stage is “surprising reorientated”. This stage is marked by surprise, the way things all seemed to work out for good and gives us something new out of something old. When we are in this stage, life seems renewed and our circumstances are compellingly welcomed. Over time this new place becomes settled and secure and we begin the process of moving through the stages all over again.

Right now we are in a stage of painful disorientation. We suddenly find ourselves in a tough new work and life environment.  We have drifted out of the current of a known world and into the vortex of a completely strange, new world. It's in-between what was and what will be. It will be surprising to see where this all leads us.

The mauraders of change

A ship ladened with gold, silver, and precious jewels was on its way back to port when it was suddenly confronted by a pirate ship, skull and crossbones flag waving in the wind. The first mate asked the captain what they should do. The captain simply replied, "Bring me my red shirt". They repelled the pirates with out sustaining any casualties.

A few days later the ship was confronted not by one but by three pirate ships. The first mate asked the captain what they should do. His reply again was, "Bring me my red shirt". The captain fought valiantly and was an inspiration to the rest of the crew. They again held off the pirates with very few casualites.

That night as they were celebrating, the first mate asked the captain what the secret of the red shirt was. "It's quite simple," replied the captain. "I wear the red shirt because then the men won't see the blood from my wounds and will be inspired to continue to fight."

Another couple days went by when yet again they were confronted by pirate ships. The strength of the mauraders this time was an armada of ten ships. The first mate, in a panic, asked the captain what they should do. The captain answered, "First mate, bring me my brown pants."

There are many reasons today to wear our brown pants. The mauraders of change that bear down upon us can cause great fear and a trepidation:

The Financial Marauder: We are currently living in the worst economic times since the Great Depression of the 1930's. No one has been immune to its residual effects. People either are, or know someone who is, laid off or underemployed and struggling to make ends meet.

So we wear our brown pants.

The Technological Marauder: We live in a day and age of rapid technological advancement. It's exciting, but is still wrought with fear. Are we able to keep up with the accelerated innovations? As more and more functions are being taken over by technological automation, where does that leave the workforce? With the blending of fact and fiction, real and digital (atoms and bits) what does it mean to be human?

And so, we wear our brown pants.

The Environmental Maurader: The degredation of our natural habitat is quickening. The warming of the planet is causing frequent and powerful weather events. Earthquakes remind us that we are beholden to the natural moans and groans of our planet.

And so, we wear our brown pants.

The Educational Maurader: Our public school system is the focus of much critique. No matter how much money we throw at our concerns, education in the United States is lagging in many ways the rest of the world. The answer to the question, 'What does it mean to be well educated today?" does not seem to align with the answer of our current educational systems.

And so, we wear our brown pants.

These are just a few of the mauraders  that are sailing the waters of incredible change. We could come up with many more. The challenges and opportunities are all there before us, confronting our abilities to engage in significant ways. Fear is there, yes, but so too is the adrenaline of where we can go with these changes. The onus is on us to engage them with confidence and in ways that will better the world - or at least our little corner of it.

This is NOT meant to be a downer

The health club where I work out is in the basement of a medical office building. It was originally intended by the hospital to be a place of therapy for patients as well as a benefit to employees. It's quite nice. I leave feeling invigorated from the exercise. 

Yet, everytime I leave I can't help but feel a bit sanguine. You see, on my way out to the parking lot I have to make my way through the elderly and infirmed who are there to see their doctors. Many times there are vans with lifts helping down patients in wheel chairs. Walkers are ubiquous as the aging joints no longer seem as spry or lubricated as they once were and extra help is needed to walk and move forward.

I'm glad I encounter it all though. It keeps my life in perspective and gives me a renewed vigor for the present moment. Soon, much sooner than I would like, I will be in their shoes. My joints will be worse off then they are now (though mine do ache from time to time). I'm sure there will be many visits to the doctor just to keep the affects of old age under control. I already have a couple "liver spots" on my neck for goodness sake.

I also participated in a funeral service today for a dear friend who passed away at age 50 (50!) from melanoma. Talk about an event that keeps things in perspective and compels one to make the most of every moment.

All that is to say, we should wisely reallocate resourses from the future (whether it be money or time) and use it for the service of the present. There are a friends to see, places to go, and family to love. Time moves quickly and we never know how soon our life may end. What, then, is all that disproportionate worry about future comfort and security etc. going to do for us?

I'm not trying to be a downer here, but I believe the healthiest thing we can do is look in the mirror and admit to ourselves that we are aging and are going to die some day. It's scathingly honest and eliminates all kinds of dysfuntion and psychosis. It keeps us on our toes. It also helps us live today no matter what our age.

Maybe the most wonderful gift we can give ourselves and others today, is quite simply, today. Live it now, live it fully, and live it well - because for heaven sakes time is swift and unpredictable.  I'm not much of a philosopher (makes my head bust open), but I am passionate about life, and life becomes more meaningful and richer when I filter it through the lense of dying.

The next digital technology: Us

Twenty years after predicting the switch between wired and wireless technologies, Nicholas Negroponte describes another advance that will soon seem inevitable: the convergence of “biology and silicone.” Interesting.

Predictions: 2046 - 2150

The following are excerpted from the British Telecom Technology Timeline (information was compiled by Ian Neild and Ian Pearson from worldwide sci-tech reports in 2005):

• Political correctness creates new dark age
• Whole generation unable to effectively read, write, think, and work
• Human genetic engineering creates hostile super-race
• Humans assimilated into net
• Time travel works with humans
• Immortality chip - people move into cyberspace
• Faster-than-light travel by 2100

Predictions: 2026 - 2045

The following are excerpted from the British Telecom Technology Timeline (information was compiled f by Ian Neild and Ian Pearson from worldwide sci-tech reports in 2005):

• AI entity sets up higher-level prize for advanced intelligence
• Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computer
• Robots physically and mentally superior to humans
• Emulation of bio life form inside the computer using protein emulation
• Living genetically engineered teddy bear
• Production, storage, and use of antimatter
• Space factories for commercial production
• First war without any casualties from friendly fire
• Robots outnumber soldiers on battlefield
• Smart bacteria used as military threat to mankind
• Attacks based on facilitating natural disasters
• Smart-bacteria weapons
• Gated cities for civilized people
• Use of solar wind deflectors to set fire to cities
• Nanotech-based virus communicable between machines and people, sent over net
• Asteroid diversion used as weapon
• Moon base the size of small village
• Insect-sized robots banned in gardens due to effects on wildlife
• Robotic delivery for internal mail
• Robotic exercise companion
• More robots than people in developed countries
• Android gladiators
• Genetic modification used to make organic robots
• i-Robot-style robots with polymer muscles and strong AI
• Emotion transmission and conversion (feel love or anger)
• Digital image overlays enhance relationships
• Global voting is held on some issues
• Network-based telepathy begins to take place online
• Language teaching decline due to machine translation services
• Learning superseded by transparent interface to smart computers
• 95 percent of people in advanced nations are computer literate
• VR extensively used in retirement homes
• Restricted capability home genetic engineering kits
• Experience recording allows retention of complete set of sensations
• "Running man"-style entertainment shows using androids
• Widespread use of sensors in the countryside
• Artificial precipitation induction & control
• Global environmental-management corporations
• Electronic memory enhancement
• Many new forms of plants and animals from genetic engineering
• Nanobots in toothpaste attack plaque
• Fully functioning artificial eyes
• Electronic brain implants
• Genetic, chemical, and physiological bases of human behavior understood
• First Bionic Olympics
• e-babies, genetic conception
• DNA compression used to create optimal organisms
• Virus crosses over from machine to human
• Synthetic immune system
• Artificial peripheral nerves
• Sims game using real genetics

Predictions: 2016 - 2025

The following are excerpted from the British Telecom Technology Timeline (information was compiled by Ian Neild and Ian Pearson from worldwide sci-tech reports in 2005):

• AI technology imitating thinking processes of the brain
• AI teachers get better results than most human teachers
• AI starts being noticed as a source of redundancy
• Computers write most of their own software
• Human knowledge is exceeded by machine knowledge
• Electronic pets outnumber organic pets
• Electronic life form given basic rights
• Artificial insects and small animals with artificial brains
• AI entity becomes a Member of British Parliament
• Smart bacteria contains electronics and is linked to net
• AI brings chimpanzee or dolphin up to human-level intelligence
• AI entity awarded Nobel Prize
• Virus wipes out half of the electronic pet population
• Remote-control devices built into living pets
• AI entities given the right to vote
• Nanotech-based organism colonies built
• Synthetic bacteria is created
• Artificial sensors used in cosmetic upgrade surgery
• Smart makeup works to improve people's looks
• Listing of individual's DNA for $1 (10M key base pairs)
• More people using telework centers than home working
• Telework centers double as community resources
• Police force privatized in many nations
• Films where viewers can choose who acts in each role
• Autonomous production plants make everything
• Retirement age begins to be linked to a person's medical history
• Holodecks using room lined completely with polymer screens
• Thought recognition as an everyday input process
• Self-diagnostic, self-repairing robots
• War fought entirely between robot armies
• ID cards replaced by biometric scanning
• Fuel cells replace internal-combustion engines
• Life expectancy approaches 100

Predictions five years from now

The following are excerpted from the British Telecom Technology Timeline (information was compiled by Ian Neild and Ian Pearson from worldwide sci-tech reports in 2005):

• Highest-earning celebrity is synthetic
• Dolls come with a personality chip and full sensory input
• 25 percent of TV celebrities are synthetic
• Expert systems surpass average human learning and logic abilities
• Computer agents start being thought of as colleagues instead of tools
• Autonomous AI sales staff units become AI stalkers
• First multi-celled organism assembled from scratch
• Self-aware machine intelligence
• Computer-enhanced dreaming
• Thought-recognition used in sleep enhancement
• High-speed civil transport supersonic jet, 300 passengers, 1,500 mph
• GPS and engine-management systems linked to limit speed automatically
• Paper and coins largely replaced by electronic cash
• Most tickets electronic
• Personal taxation at point of sale
• Automatic dialing from smart business cards
• Augmented-reality overlays used in stores
• Reverse auctions in personal shopping devices (nearby stores bid to provide items on shopping list)
• Hotel in orbit
• Scalable AI as major military threat
• Positive clean ID required for access to many places
• Terrorist use of genetic modification to pollute crops and damage economy
• Most fighters and bombers flown remotely
• Use of network resonance as security threat
• Ambient intelligence detection of minor crimes & anti-social behavior
• Identity theft forces all transactions to use biometrics
• Domestic augmented-reality used to give virtual makeovers
• Biometric ID required for every phone call
• Use of mutant insects for attack purposes
• Robot dance tutors
• Nanowalkers, nanoworms, nanofish
• Mechanical intelligence using MEMS and NEMS
• Supercomputers with speed exceeding 1 ExaFLOPS
• DNA computer
• Use of bacteria for processing and storage
• Desktop computer as fast as human brain
• Use of polymer gels for information processing
• Kitchen rage caused by electronic gadgets
• Electronic implant equivalent to Botox
• Use of virtual-reality scenes in household rooms as decor
• Replacement of people leads to anti-technology subculture
• Most electronic toys are hybrids, with half on internet
• Anti-noise technology built into homes
• Active wallpaper responds to inhabitants' moods, etc.
• Neighborhood video-surveillance networks
• Washing machine aware of contents and selects cycle
• Augmented-reality offices used in telework centers
• Palm-top printing puts buttons on skin
• Glasses-based computer displays dominate in the office
• Electronic responses can be automated based on conversational inference
• Windows with coatings to re-direct sunlight
• Nanotechnology toys
• Paper money replaced by smart media
• Spread of nomadic information companies leads to global taxation
• Academic learning is argued to be unnecessary in the age of smart machines
• Integrated taxation in all transactions
• Return-to-sender viruses, corporate counterattacks
• Nano devices roaming within blood vessels under own power
• Use of humans' own tissues to grow replacement organs
• Direct electronic pleasure production
• Context-sensitive cyber-drugs
• Electronic stimulation of brain sensations as recreational substitute for drugs
• Some implants seen as status symbols
• Gene-gel stimulation of re-growth of natural teeth on demand
• Retina regeneration using fetal retinal cell injection
• Emotion logging and recording
• Emotionally specific drugs
• Micro-fluidic chips used for gene sequencing in every GP surgery
• Self-certification for prescriptions using electronic diagnostics
• Outpatients at home - remote tele-medical consultations
• Genetic links of 90 percent of diseases identified
• Individual's genome part of their medical record
• Synthetic organs created by printing layers of cells
• Synthetic viruses created
• Sensory augmentation using sensory implants, nanoparticles, etc.
• Use of stem cells to treat human brain after strokes or accidents
• Gene therapy generates new hair cells in humans
• Sensory implants allow direct sensing of cyberspace entities
• Robotic cleaners in hospitals
• Biometrics and medical tests linked to benefits and disability allowance